Humanity's experiences in life have always confirmed to us: that hope is a refuge for people in
the darkest moments of danger and a sense of despair. Life remains rosy despite the tragedies,
pains and disasters. It is an extended procession of pleasures, pleasures, moments of joy and
suffering. The more the scene of life suggests anxiety and loss, the more a person needs doses
of hope. It feels beyond reasonable limits. So the year 2020 was one of the strongest moments
in which humanity faced this feeling closely despite the earthquake of disasters that it
experienced almost throughout the year.
Thanks to hope, everyone was a Yemeni person who successfully passed this test
The coming year may be as difficult as the last year, or maybe more. Given the constraints of
public health, with the continuing spread of the Corona epidemic and its effects, whether
economically, socially, and even at the political level. Therefore, it remains necessary for us to
take with the same degree of hope all measures of caution and vigilance towards the challenges
that await humanity in the new year, as inevitably the world will not be after Corona virus as it
was before it.
Remember that this emerging virus, which infected 75 million people, and the death of 1.66
million people, seems to be continuing with us, according to the estimates of scientific journals.
But the idea now is to neutralize it, so that it is a non-fatal disease. It will remain in 2021 and
2022. There may be annual increases in infections until 2025 and perhaps years beyond, but
there is another problem related to the distribution of the vaccine and the ability of countries to
provide it to their citizens.
There is hopeful news as the lockdown eases. Early evidence suggests that personal behavioral
changes, such as washing hands and wearing masks, will continue beyond the strict lockdown,
helping to stem the wave of infections.
To end the epidemic, the virus must either be eliminated from all parts of the world, a scenario
that most scientists agree is almost impossible due to its current extent, or people must build
adequate immunity through infection or vaccine. And therefore; Immunity is what will determine
what the world will be like in the coming period.
- Vaccine trade wars
The World Health Organization says that there are 26 vaccines in human trials; Of these, 12 are
in stage two and 6 in stage three, so the vaccine that provides incomplete protection would help
reduce disease severity and prevent outbreaks. However, it will take months to manufacture and
distribute a successful vaccine, which means more infections and deaths. Everyone wants to
control this large market, which will generate hundreds of billions for the most successful and
effective vaccine holder, and the grand prize offered is the opportunity to control the virus
pandemic.
Vaccine diplomacy will accompany battles between countries over who should be first. So that
the vaccine turns into an international act to invest it politically and financially at the same time.
In 2021, the world will enter into a new battle to acquire and profit from vaccines. And new wars
will appear, wars of stealing vaccine research secrets, as China and Russia expand their efforts
to steal American business in both research institutes and companies.
Remember this paragraph: 2021 will be the year of uncovering secrets and scandals regarding
the emergence of Corona, and the secrets of vaccine research. And disclosure of the game
states and companies with human genes. It will not be a year for the elimination of the Corona
virus. Rather, it is the year of the corona breeding to new strains made by nature, or countries
and companies to acquire billions to compensate for their losses, and enforce their economies
from economic collapse and recession. And humanity will remain for years under the nightmare
of new viruses and wearing masks. We will live a cycle of negative thinking and illusory hope. A
world ends in our korn, and another is shaped by new viruses!
- Biden descends from the sky
Just as Corona has become the talk of people and raises their fear, terror and anxiety. The
American elections have become the world's obsession with watching them and closely
watching their fate, and waiting for whoever wins: Trump or Biden. Divided countries, sects,
races and races over the candidate’s wish to win. In countries where sectarianism was
established, a particular sect tended to one of the candidates. Trump became a Sunni and Biden
a Shiite. In the other, Trump is white and Biden is black. It also moved to races and nationalities.
So what happened in this world obsessed with presidents, discord and hypocrisy?
Trump ascended to the skies after his controversial loss, and his adherence to power. He read
his opponents Al-Fatihah. While Biden descended from heaven, his fans found in him a man of
salvation from chaos and racism, and another found an end to the era of Trumpian threats,
intimidation and siege. All cry over the nights!
Undoubtedly, to determine that President Donald Trump's mandate was chaotic in decisions and
moods, and its leadership was marked by the mentality of a profit-seeking trader. Therefore,
cracks have been cracked in the crust of the geopolitical universe. We will need years of hard
work and persistent patience in order to get to know its depths, curves and secrets before we try
to live in the era of the weak Biden.
Looking ahead, analyzing and linking events, and understanding the ideas of the Democratic
Party, the year 2021 will witness international and regional changes. International among them is
the beginning of American policy in a new phase in the framework of rearranging priorities in the
world, starting from canceling the idea of Trump (America first) to opening up to the world and
engaging in global affairs, and reforming what Trump has spoiled with the allies in NATO.
America will enter into alliances with powers such as Japan and India against China, but in a
more calm and rational manner. It will rearrange its relations with Russia in a negative direction
and with new tensions and other sanctions. We will also see new hubs such as Russia, China
and North Korea. And other blocs between Turkey, Iran and Pakistan. A mess that only God
knows about!
There are many changes that will occur in international relations during the year 2021 during the
Biden era, on top of which is a calm in the pace of international relations between the United
States of America and China. But there is conflict at the corporate level, and not just the clear
examples of Huawei and TikTok, where business becomes more of a geopolitical battlefield.
President Biden is not expected to easily cancel the trade war with China. But his policy toward
China will be based on the idea of combining cooperation, competition and confrontation. And
avoid dangerous confrontation with China, and cooperate with China in the field of health and
climate change
The facts and political analyzes indicate the possibility of the United States returning to the
nuclear agreement with Iran under new conditions that ensure that Iran does not produce a
nuclear weapon and stops manufacturing plastic missiles. On the other hand, Iran will be in a
difficult position in 2021 if Biden is keen to reach an agreement. However, given the deteriorating
state of its economy and suffocated by US economic sanctions, Tehran may be persuaded to
return to negotiations in exchange for easing sanctions on its oil exports. This will likely be the
best strategy for all sides to pursue: a slow turnaround through 2021 with incentives to de-
escalate regional tensions and aid economic recovery, but not to bring Iran back into oil markets.
Relations between the United States and the European Union and within NATO, with the
exception of Turkey, will become stronger. There will be a new shape for Europe in the coming
period. The German administration will witness the departure of Chancellor Angela Merkel, but it
is not clear if the new administration will be as firm as Merkel’s administration, while some Gulf
countries will witness some tensions with the United States regarding the Iran file, human rights
and freedoms while preserving the foundations of the old relationship with these countries,
especially Saudi Arabia. And the Emirates.
The world awaits Biden's actions. What will he do in 2021. The many files await him: Corona
virus and the expected vaccine, the stagnation of the economy, dismantling the intersections and
solving the problems left by Trump, America's relations with China, Russia, the European Union,
the Arabs and Iran.
Some see Biden as having great political experience and a realistic politician. It is also not a
carbon copy of Oba’s policy, because today's world and its problems are no longer in the past.
Everything has changed from the main door of international politics to the type of encrypted key.
While others see that the Biden era is a continuation of the constants of the Democratic Party
and its old version. Biden, after all, is the body in motion, and his mind is kept in his party's
cupboard. The man is no longer dynamic in the days of the youth and maturity of politics. He is
now at his weakest physical and intellectual fitness. Age (78) takes a lot from him, as he is
greater than any president in American history. So some believe he is unlikely to complete his
first term.
- The shock of falling economies
Without a doubt, the biggest disaster in 2020 is the collapse of the economy, which is considered
the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Billions of dollars have been lost from
nations. Its economic systems and companies fell, life ceased, and its breathing holes closed.
The economy is no longer spinning. Which means increased poverty and inflation of
unemployment.
Human lives have changed, and the balance of nations has been turned upside down. The
economies of countries disappeared under tremendous pressure, which led to heavy losses in
their economic systems due to the global economic slowdown. He hit the elements of supply and
demand at the same time, due to the imposition of quarantine restrictions and the state of panic
among the consumer. As India struggled to feed its citizens, Italy shut down the largest economy
in the eurozone and a major exporter of machinery, textiles and other goods for most of its
industry. It is the first developed Western country to disrupt most of its industry, widening the
shutdown to unnecessary small businesses for heavy industry firms.
As for Europe and the world, all restaurants, hotels, airlines, giant chains and small shops have
been closed, as cities, states and entire countries have ordered the closure of unnecessary
companies and instructed people to stay at home. And with it, millions are laid off from work.
And 3.3 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits in one week. The United Nations
estimated that up to 25 million jobs could be lost, more than what happened during the global
financial meltdown in 2008. Economic Adviser at the International Monetary Fund, Gita
Gopinath, predicted that the global economy may incur about $ 12.5 trillion due to the crisis
during 2020 and 2021. In the medium term, the outlook will be bleak given the social distancing
that will remain in place until the end of 2022, which prevents a real economic recovery.
Inconvenient numbers, there will be a global decline in output 3%, and a loss of the global
economy 20 trillion dollars, and global debt to record levels of 100% of the size of GDP, and 1.25
billion people are threatened with unemployment. To approximate the size of the loss, the
Monetary Fund said (the global economic loss is equal to the size of the economies of Germany
and Japan)
Given the world's inability to determine when the virus will end, the economic crisis will be long.
And both the consumer and the investor will become more cautious and anticipate the possibility
of another wave. Which will delay the return of natural growth and moving the economic wheel.
The sectors most affected by this crisis until the end of 2021 will be tourism, transport, oil and
restaurants. The gap between strong and weak firms will widen. Tourism is shrinking and
changing shape, with more emphasis on domestic travel. Airlines, hotel chains and aircraft
manufacturers will face major difficulties. As well as universities that rely heavily on foreign
students.
The sectors that will benefit and will not be affected are digital marketing and digital commerce.
And pharmaceutical and information technology companies, Microsoft companies, cell phones,
telecommunications and videoconferencing that are used for students, virtual meetings such as
Zoom, and movie companies from home (Netflix). In the future, companies will also feature in
innovation and research.
With regard to countries, China, which quickly defeated the virus, is the biggest beneficiary of
this crisis. It still produces most of the world's needed commodities at a competitive price, and
has the largest US bond and investment fund in the world.
Our expectations, that the global economic recovery will be slow and volatile among countries,
and the duration of the contraction will be prolonged unless the virus ends completely. The
recovery will be partial and erratic in 2021. This clearly reflects the uncertainty of the global
economy in light of the unresolved issue of the epidemic.
Yes, the worst is over. Risks may decline slightly, but that does not mean the crisis is over.
Frankly, the global economy needs a miracle in light of the current scenario, the facts of the field,
the mutated viruses, and the numbers of international organizations.
- Survival of digital technology
In 2020, the pandemic has accelerated the adoption of many technological behaviors, from
video conferencing and online shopping to remote work and distance learning. In 2021 it will
become clear how long these changes will continue. Economists and consultants have long
predicted that technology will pull jobs, but the pandemic has accelerated these expectations.
The world's policymakers need to consider investing in digital technology to reduce human and
economic losses.
2021 will be the year of the spread of artificial intelligence, and an important tool in interpreting
and understanding the world, especially times of Corona and the spread of new diseases and
viruses. Where he will be supportive of healthcare organizations by learning information
algorithms and how to manage crises.
Companies will also use it to recruit, understand user behavior, and analyze massive amounts of
big data.
On the other hand, humanity will witness robots, airplanes, and a vehicle that will march in the
distance. Heavy reliance on technology, computing and cloud services. Sales of last-mile
gadgets and devices to work from home, whether they are communications devices, or various
technical services, will increase. As the use of software based on (low code) or lighter, less
complex, and lighter programming processes increases, as distance education continues and
develops its digital methods and services.
Among the expectations that came in the list of producing companies, the emergence of
advanced tools for remote work and cooperation for a long time, including, for example, devices
(white board) connected to the Internet and information networks, such as the (jump board) from
Google, and (Service Hub) from Microsoft Corporation, and (Flip) from Samsung.
And the expectation is that sales of this type of product will boom throughout 2021, driven by the
launch of better and more advanced devices from (Facebook) and (Apple) throughout the year
and beyond. Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) will continue to maintain their position in 2021.
Companies will need to spend more time and effort building awareness of their cloud presence,
and significant additional training in security awareness.
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